UK Money blog provides news and comment on the world of money, finance and investment. We cover mortgages, loans, leasing, insurance, credit cards, property, savings and taxation.
07 May 2008
House Prices and Reflexive Forecasting
Lloyds TSB is the latest bank to jump on the house prices are falling band wagon. According to a report in the Daily Telegraph Lloyds TSB's acting finance director Tim Tookey believes that prices will fall 10% over the next 12-24 months. Mr Tookey may well be qualified in finance but he has the equivalent of an ABC in forecasting. The reality is prices have already fallen. As every leading commentator is forecasting a fall, and the cash isn't there to make the market do otherwise, nobody but an idiot would pay a price that didn't reflect the new market circumstances. Why pay more for an item now, incurring interest charges of 6% per annum, when you can buy the same item for 10% less in 18 months time?
Labels:
House Prices,
reflexive foerecasting
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