07 May 2008

House Prices and Reflexive Forecasting


Lloyds TSB is the latest bank to jump on the house prices are falling band wagon. According to a report in the Daily Telegraph Lloyds TSB's acting finance director Tim Tookey believes that prices will fall 10% over the next 12-24 months. Mr Tookey may well be qualified in finance but he has the equivalent of an ABC in forecasting. The reality is prices have already fallen. As every leading commentator is forecasting a fall, and the cash isn't there to make the market do otherwise, nobody but an idiot would pay a price that didn't reflect the new market circumstances. Why pay more for an item now, incurring interest charges of 6% per annum, when you can buy the same item for 10% less in 18 months time?

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