HMRC Rips Off Small Businesses with VAT Change

Today, I received my formal notification of the change in VAT rates. The Brown led Labour Government have made huge a song and dance about the so-called 2.5% cut in the standard rate from 17.5% to 15%. I call it so-called because even goods sold at the standard rate of VAT will only see a 2.13% reduction in their retail selling prices.

As a small business I am a member of the Flat Rate scheme. This means rather than have a complicated system of working out the deductions relating to input VAT I merely pay a flat rate to HMRC. The Flat Rate Scheme is available to most businesses turning over less than £187,500 (including VAT). It is a scheme that the UK Government is obliged promote under a directive from the EU.

I was surprised to find that on checking the new "detailed guide" that the flat rate for my trade sector had fallen from 9.5% to 8.5%. After all, the standard rate had fallen 1/7th, that is 14.3%. Why should the flat rate for my sector fall by just 10.5%?

I investigated further. The average flat rate across 55 trade sectors is 8.9% until 30th November and falls to 8.1% on 1st December. A fall of just 9.0%. Some sectors - including pubs - haven't changed at all. Despite collecting less VAT at the point of sale, these businesses will be expected to pay the same amount of VAT as before. This is a shocking state of affairs, that means the small business sector is actually paying for Gordon Brown's much heralded fiscal stimulus.

Gold Price Prediction Puts Spotlight on Brown

A leading gold bullion trader predicts that gold could rise to $2,000 per ounce by the end of next year. Tom Fitzpatrick who is the chief technical strategist for Citigroup says the wave of liquidity being poured into the global economy will see a flight to gold. The current price is $812 per ounce. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown is famous for selling half of the UK's gold reserves between 1998-2000 at the bottom of the market. The Treasury secured an average price of $275 per ounce. So much for our leader's financial expertise.

The Great Labour Rip-Off

Welcome to the land of the Great Labour Rip-Off. Yes, we're finally getting the socialist tax regime we deserve. After 11 years of pretending they were business and entrepreneur friendly we are now getting the traditional Labour tax treatment.

For those who haven't fully digested yesterday's news, presented by Alistair Darling as an answer to the recession, many sections of the population are heading for a 60% plus rate of marginal tax.

Changes to National Insurance (NIC), tax thresholds and the imposition of 45% top rate of tax, will mean people at both ends of the income spectrum will have see less than 40p from each additional £ they earn. This is Scandinavian levels of taxation without the Scandinavian level of public services. I know, I used to live there.

During the early 1990s I was a higher earner living in Denmark, which had a top tax rate of 62%. Interestingly, this top rate included local income which was effectively the rates - now council tax. On top of this all my mortgage interest (and any other loan interest) was tax deductible. Secondly as a family, we claimed £120 per month per child in family allowance. When all the calculations were made my effective taxation rate was less than 30% of total income - and I was earning £65k a year in 1992, equivalent to say £150k now.

When everything was weighed up I was paying about the same net level of tax as I would have done under the then UK regime of John Major. But living in Denmark meant a World Class health system, clean streets and low crime. Soon, in Gordon Brown's socialist dystopia, you will have marginal tax rates of over 60%, with council tax, water rates, prescription charges, parking charges at your local hospital combined with third world levels of public services. How have we got here?

Proposed VAT Cut - Not 2.5%

The widely reported speculation that VAT is to be cut from 17.5% to 15% and wil ead to a 2.5% reduction in retail prices requires some adjustment. Contrary to many reports, that the VAT cut will save £2.50 for every £100 spent, the actual figure will be nearer £2.13.

The maths is as follows:

Retail price of £100. To get the pre-VAT price divide £100 by 1.175. Net price = £85.11 (£85.1064 rounded). To get the new VAT inclusive price with 15% VAT, multiply this figure by 1.15. Equals £97.87 (£97.87234 rounded). Divide this into £100 and you get a reduction of 2.13% (2.1278 rounded).

Government to Lower VAT

According to a report posted this evening on the Telegraph.co.uk website, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is about to announce a temporary cut in the rate of VAT (Value Added Tax). The reduction would be from 17.5% to 15%. This would be the minimum rate allowed by the EU.

The reduction is estimated to cost £12.5 billion. Essentially, the reduction is the reverse of Margaret Thatcher's approach. Thatcher preferred indirect taxes (taxes on spending) rather than direct taxes (taxes on incomes). The Labour logic is that if you cut taxes on incomes people may just save more. If you cut taxes on spending you encourage them to spend more.

Now that the tax reduction story is in the public domain, the government must move quickly. As Darling found with rumours of reductions on stamp duty, any anticipation of a tax cut will encourage consumers to defer purchases. My guess, base on my knowledge as an unpaid collector of VAT, is that the new rate will come into effect on 1st December. VAT is an extremely complicated tax to administer at the best of times and the change will create unproductive extra work for several hundred thousand small businesses and retailers. By 1st December my own business will be two thirds of the way through my VAT quarter. Meaning that some of my VAT will be charged at the old rate and some at the newer. I suspect I will be required to make two separate VAT returns for the quarter.

House Prices Back to 2005 Levels

On the day that the BoE cut base rates to 3%, Britain's biggest home loan provider, The Halifax, reports that house prices fell 15% in the year to October. House prices are now back to the same level as 2005. Wiping out 4 years of gains.

Bank Slashes Rates - Now 3%

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today slashed the minimum lending rate to 3%. This is the lowest since 1955 and the first time a cut of more than 0.5% has been implemented since Gordon Brown gave it independence in 1997.

Business leaders welcomed the move. An act of desperation to stave of the worst effects of recession. However, the major lenders appeared unlikely to pass on much of the 1.5% reduction.

Meanwhile, despite the business community welcoming the news, the FTSE fell 5.7%.

The reduction in rates is seen as an overt signal that inflation is no longer a threat.

Dow Jones Climbs 10.9%

Could this be the end of the beginning? After weeks of really bad news the Dow Jones Industrial Average shrugged off data regarding poor consumer confidence to record a 10.88% rise to 9065. The prospect of a 0.5% cut in US interest rates appears to have over ridden the negative sentiment. It will be interesting to see how Asian and European stock markets reacts during the early part of Wednesday.

French Economy Overtakes UK

One consequence of the £ falling against the Euro and Dollar is that we are falling down the world rankings for the size of our economy. For so long we've heard that the UK is the world's fourth largest economy. No longer. On a trade weighted index the £ is now the weakest it's been seen 1996 - the year before Labour came to power. As a result the UK has been overtaken by China and France. With a quarterly GDP of $559 billion we are 7.8% behind France who are fifth and 13% of Italy who are seventh.

French Holiday Homes in Sales Slump

According to the Daily Telegraph the sales of French holiday homes have slumped. The fall in sales is particularly sharp in traditional British havens such as the Dordogne. The problem is caused by a logjam in the British housing market. French rural properties are generally bought by more affluent British consumers - sometimes in the runup to retirement. With the British property market in freefall, prices are down 12-13% on 2007, potential buyers of French property are unable to raise the necessary cash.

Petrol Prices on the Way Down

We may be nearing financial Armageddon but there is some good news out there. It seems the collapse in the global economy is driving down the price of oil. Brent Crude is now below $80 per barrel. Despite the £ sterling weakening against the US $ this has led to falls in prices at the pump. Tesco have announced a cut of 3p per litre to £1.06. By my reckoning that's still just over £4.80 per imperial gallon. But it seems Tesco are using market forces to bring down prices. Maybe we should put Tesco boss Terry Leahy in charge of running the economy?

The Truth About Iceland

As the FTSE spirals below 4,000, the UK Government intends to use legal action to pursue an estimated £19 billion worth of British cash tied up in Iceland. This is made up of £1 billion owed to UK local government, £6 billion owed to UK individuals and £12 billion owed to UK companies and institutions. The strangest thing is, what were these people and organisations doing relying so heavily on a tiny country?

Iceland has a population of 320,000. The UK's £19 billion represents and investment of almost £60,000 a head. Kent County Council, which represents a population of 1.4 million has £50 million at stake. The truth is emerging that, contrary to earlier reports, ratings agencies were flashing up warnings about Iceland as early as April. However, I would go further. The apparent financial success of Iceland and Icelandic companies - especially their banks - always smelt a little fishy.

Over recent years Icelandic banks such as Kaupthing, Glitnir and Landsbanki have been offering very attractive rates of interest. Generally much better than their UK domiciled equivalents. How could they do this on a long term basis? What intrinsic competitive advantage did they hold over traditional banks. Second, Icelandic investment companies such as Baugur were buying up huge chunks of the British high street with investments in companies such as Iceland (the grocery retailer), Karen Millen, House of Fraser and Hamleys. None of these companies was known to trading any better than their equivalents. But Baugur was awash with cash. Even West Ham United, a generally under-performing English Premiership football club, has been acquired by Icelandic owners. Who just happens to be connected to Landsbanki.

There's a generally in life, and one especially apt for finance, that if something sounds too good to be true it probably is. The rise of Iceland as an economic power house was too good to be true. The UK people, businesses and local government authorities that have lost money should have used common sense rather than waiting to be told by the ratings agencies that there was something rotten in Iceland.

UK Councils Risk Money in Icelandic Banks

The latest twist in the banking crisis is that UK local government has hundreds of millions of pounds at risk. This is money on deposit with a number of Iceland's banks. As it stands, these deposits are not being guaranteed by the UK Treasury. The Treasury has undertaken to guarantee private deposits and plans to sue the Icelandic government for losses. According to a report in today's Daily Telegraph:

Based on information from Conservative councillors, the Tories said they had identified at least £160 million of council funds exposed in Landsbanki or Heritable.

One authority alone - Kent County Council - has £50 million deposited in Landsbanki and Heritable, as well as Glitnir Bank.

I am located in Kent and a Kent council tax payer. If the money is never recovered each Kent council tax payer stands to lose £100 each!

Pipex - Rubbish Telecoms Provider

Pipex are a rubbish company. They are owned by those jokers of the telecoms market Tiscali. Yesterday I received a letter telling me my phone would be cut off as my account was apparently in arrears. When I tried to use my phone I was given a message telling me my service was suspended and that I should phone customer services on 150. Guess what? Number 150 was engaged and remained so all day.

I got through to Pipex via an 0800 number. The staff at the end of the line told me that as an ex-Bulldog customer I needed to speak to Pipex Homecall - a separate division. I spoke to Pipex home call who told me they couldn't help as I was a business customer and needed to speak to the Pipex business team. So I phoned back the business team. I was asked, "Are you an ex-Bulldog customer?". On answering "Yes", the phone was put down. I originally signed up with Bulldog. At the time they operated UK call centres, based in Manchester. Now they have been acquired by Tiscali they have gone down the pan.

Several frustrating phone calls later I was told by Pipex's Lithuanian call centre, that they had a problem and that I shouldn't be cut off. However, this person couldn't rectify the matter, neither could their boss. Several hours later I was called by someone on the Pipex customer services team. They wanted to check my details. When I gave these they explained they had called the wrong number. I then asked them to rectify my problem. They couldn't. Several emails and phone calls later I have received an email from them asking me to call their customer services team on an 0871 number. Each call costs 10p per minute. Why should I be paying this when they have cut me off in error? And guess what, I can't call them from my landline as they have cut me off. Pipex business telecoms are totally crap. Do not deal with them.

Bradford & Bingley - Dalek City

In all the turmoil I forget to find time to mention the demise of Brandford and Bingley. In the 1980s I had the fortune to live in Bingley, just a couple of hundred yards from the B&B headquarters. These were affectionately known by the locals as "Dalek city". For the simple reason that the yellowy/creamy concrete monstrosity was so out of step with the rest of Bingley's architecture.

As a former local resident I was attracted to saving with the then then building society, and eventually, received the flotation shares. I had plenty of time for the then chief executive, Christopher Rodrigues but sold my shares when he left.

Market Turmoil - Business as Usual

In all the frenetic media coverage its difficult to remember that most business activity is carrying on as usual. The world of Wall Street and the City appears almost completely detached from the day to day activities of most businesses.

I look after a range of clients across a number of different industries and market categories. Most are carrying on as usual. Yes, they are all aware that there is a coming recession. And they are all aware that consumers and small businesses are acting in a more prudent manner. But, so far, the apocalyptic headlines have made little real difference to their business performance. If you're selling a business, I would recommend you contact them.

Only yesterday retailer Tesco - not a client of mine - reported an 11% rise in profits. Too bad for Tesco, the media wasn't interested. At the other end of the scale business carries on for many small businesses. Yes, if you're an estate agent or mortgage broker there isn't much activity. But how many businesses are directly connected to a sector that was bloated by years of above inflation growth in house prices?

Crude Oil Price Boosts Economy

It may not be very much but the price of crude oil looks like settling at around $100 per barrel. This level may be sufficiently low to provide a whole series of benefits for the wider economy. Interest rates, food inflation and of course the price of domestic heating may all start to fall.

A Precession rather than a Recession

Its a torrid day on the stock exchange with falls of 5% to 25% across the banking sector. This leaves the Royal Bank of Scotand (RBS), Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) and Bradford & Bingley all trading below their deeply discounted rights issues. The banks, estate agents and house builders may all be in trouble but is there a recession? Technically no. The preferred definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. At the moment the available data tells us the economy is still growing. However, there is litte good economic news and what we get seems to imply there's a recession on its way. My definition of this is a pre-cession. Its going to happen but its not here yet.

The bad economic news contrasts with my day to day feedback from clients. Most will admit trading conditions are tight. But they are far from declining. I have picked up two new clients in the past month. And one client has announced he is to treble his marketing budget. I get the distinct feeling that athough the financial and building sectors are in trouble, much of the rest of the economy remains largely unscathed.

John Charcol Fires 25% of Workforce

As the crisis in the UK homes market continues to intensify, leading independent mortgage broker John Charcol has announced that a quarter of its staff is to be made redundant. Charcol has a tremendous reputation and frequently quoted by the quality newspapers. If they're in trouble then the weaker players must be in a really bad way.

Reports are now flying on from all directions that the housing market has collapsed. Price and transaction levels are falling. Yet little has really been done by the UK government. Maybe it's time for a review of stamp duty.

LinkedIn Worth $1 Billion

According to a report on Telegraph.co.uk, social networking website LinkedIn is now worth $1 billion. The valuation is based on $53 million of new capital from Bain Capital. Some of the new money will be used to expand in Europe. LinkedIn already has more than 1 million members in Europe.

I am a member of LinkedIn and cannot see what the fuss is all about. I find the navigation system extremely hard to fathom out.

Willem Buiter Calls for Rate Rise

Meanwhile, with B&B entering the financial intensive care unit, former Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Willem Buiter is calling for a rise in base rates. Buiter, a professor at the London School of Economics (LSE), believes the threat of inflation is a real danger to the long term health of the economy. He doesn't go as far as me in suggesting that the attempts to alleviate the credit crunch are directly fuelling speculation in commidities, but he does suggest that governments are being dishonest in not owning up to the fact that there is an inevitable decline in living standards that governments are powerless to stop. As Gordon Brown is finding out, declining living standards don't play well with democracies.

Bradford & Bingley Raise £400m

Bradford and Bingley's shares fell 20% this morning as formal details emerged of a £400m+ refinancing plan. Stage 1 involves an injection of £179 from new investo Texas Pacific Group (TPG). TPG acquires 23% of B&B's equity. Stage 2 is a rights issue to existing shareholders priced at 55p per share.

Rumours have been circling for several week's regarding the problems at Britain's biggest "buy to let" (BTL ) lender. B&B has a 20% share of the BTL market and this segment of the mortgage market was perceived to be particularly vulnerable to the property downturn.

An immediate casualty of the bank's troubles is chief executive, Steven Crawshaw. Crawshaw is apparently on sick leave suffering from angina. A fairly serious health complaint. Crawshaw made the mistake of denying the need for a rights issue only 2 months ago. Now that the funding crisis is acute, he is an obvious candidate to join Northern Rock's Adam Applegarth on the banking career scrapheap.

UK House Prices Continue Fall

According to Britain's largest building society, The Nationwide, UK property prices fell 2.5% last month. This is the biggest monthly fall since records began 17 years ago.

Whilst some analysts expressed surprise at the rate of the decline it is obvious that the decline should be short and sharp. Housing is a non-perishable product. If everyone from the Council of Mortgage Lenders to the Government is predicting a 10% decline over 12 months, why would any purchaser not hold out for a reduction against asking prices set in a more buoyant environment? In essence these forecasts, particularly those from more credible sources, tend to be reflexive. That is self-fulfilling prophecies. As sellers, buyers and lenders lower their price expectations.

Bill Gates Buys into Carpetright

According to a report in today's TIMES, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has bought into UK furnishings retailer, Carpetright. The 3% investment has been made via the Cascade Investment LLC, the personal investment company of the billionaire. The investment is thought to be worth £15 million.

The UK furnishing market has been going through a tough time. The credit crunch and the consequent reduction in home moving activity has reduced underlying demand. The early May hot weather also saw demand for products such as beds drop as consumers directed their attention to outdoor activities. Gates' advisers have obviously spotted a European buying opportunity. The UK remains outside of the Euro, which has strengthened significantly against the US Dollar.

Carpetright is led by Lord Harris of Peckham, who founded the business in 1988. Carpetright has stores in Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland.

Denis MacShane MP Calls for Tax Cuts

In today's Telegraph, Labour MP Denis MacShane calls on Gordon Brown to cut taxes.

Here is a direct quote from MacShane's article.

Any prime minister in office today would feel the voters' anger as they see their cherished plans to spend their own money as they see fit destroyed by rising prices combined with the insatiable greed of the state in all its manifestations to take the people's money for its own, often incompetent and counter-productive ends.

I particularly like the reference to "insatiable greed". Denis MacShane, the MP for Rotherham is acutely aware that the real backlash against Brown is that he is obsessed with tax and spend. Brown is an unreconstructed socialist obsessed with destroying the middle classes ability to become independent of his client state. To problem now though, as MacShane observes, is the way the tax burden has risen for those on average incomes. It is these people that are deserting Labour in their droves.

Mortgage Lenders Predict House Price Decline

The Council of Mortgage Lenders have predicted a 7% fall in UK housing prices during 2008. This a 6% decline from existing prices, already down 1% on 2007. As I have mentioned before, such forecasts tend to be reflexive. Or in laymans terms, self-fulfilling. Once the people who control the vast majority of the finance markets for houses decide your house is worth 7% less than a year ago, they will lend proportionately less to fund its purchase. The prices therefore come down. A problem is the speed at which this happens. In previous downturns sellers failed to respond to the new, lower, price expectations and property remained unsold. If this happens, the market will ground to a halt, leaving estate agents, solicitors and DIY stores with much lower levels of business. This of course leads to more unemployment. Only this week, Economist Roger Bootle forecast that unemployment will rise by 750,000.

In my view the market will adjust more sharply. There will be a bigger price decline as buy to let landlords and those with highly leveraged borrowings bring a glut of property to a difficult market.

Oil Hits $130 per Barrel - before the fall

According to a report on Telegraph.co.uk, the price of crude oil has now reached $130 per barrel. Worse, the price of future oil is rising. With prices for deliveries next month rising $15, and prices for 2016 rising $25. The figures indicate that the market for oil speculation is taking on further momentum.

In my opinion, just when everyone climbs on the speculation bandwagon we should start looking for an oil price fall. Sophisticated economists may well talk about the decoupling of underlying GDP from oil prices, and vice versa. I suspect, however, that once all the liquidity pumped in to prevent the credit crunch destroying the housing market is used up oil prices will at first stabilise and then fall. As an asset, unlike shares, oil doesn't pay a dividend and is expensive to store. When the GDP downturn bites, speculators will move out of oil as quickly as they deserted sterling back in 1992.

Humberts Crunched by Property Slump

FT.com reports that leading estate agents Humberts have suspended their shares pending a clarification of their financial position. Humberts are a highly reputable and long established firm of chartered surveyors and estate agents. The news comes on a day when it was reported that despite successive cuts in BOE interest base rates, mortgage companies continue to push up the interest rates charged to borrowers. Humberts specialised towards the upper end of the housing market. And it would appear that it is this part of the market that has seen the greatest fall in transaction activity.

A year ago Humberts' shares traded at over 80 pence (See chart).

UK Housebuilder Hit by Property Downturn

Barratt, iconic builder of shoe box houses, reports more bad news from the UK property market. Barratt has a huge stock of unsold houses. Many buyers who have already paid deposits are dropping out as they struggle to raise mortgage finance. The bad news from Barratt comes just days after Redrow, another large house builder, announced thousands of redundancies. This comes on top of dire predictions about the number of estate agencies that will be forced to close. Only yesterday government minister Caroline Flint managed to have her briefing notes photographed by a long range photographer. See photo above right. The notes revealed the government's own predictions on the housing market. These were for price falls of 10% or more.

Whilst it's doom and gloom in the house building and estate agency market, the market for property management could hardly be better. As first time buyers, and many others on the margins of the market, struggle to raise finance the market for rental property is booming.

Chancellor Cuts Tax for Basic Rate Payers

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair has cut income tax for basic rate tax payers. He has done so by raising the basic rate threshold to £6,025. This is particularly advantageous for ow earners, many of which have been penalised by the 10p tax rate.

The cut is effective for the whole of the 2008/9 income tax year, although most tax payers will have to wait until September before they see any change to their take home pay. It appears that higher rate tax payers will not benefit from the move, as adjustments will be made to the higher rate threshold.

The cost of the move is estimated to be £2.7 billion. The Conservative Party have attacked the move on the basis of the timing. The Government faces a crucial by election on Thursday - just two days after the announcement.

Handling Euros

Does anybody know how long it should take for a bank to process a cheque drawn in Euros? Previously, all my Euro transactions have been done electronically. This seems to take two or three days. I took a Euro denominated cheque to my bank on 30th April. They were totally confused. I was then told to post it to their international department. Since then, eight days have passed and no word of any action.

House Prices and Reflexive Forecasting

Lloyds TSB is the latest bank to jump on the house prices are falling band wagon. According to a report in the Daily Telegraph Lloyds TSB's acting finance director Tim Tookey believes that prices will fall 10% over the next 12-24 months. Mr Tookey may well be qualified in finance but he has the equivalent of an ABC in forecasting. The reality is prices have already fallen. As every leading commentator is forecasting a fall, and the cash isn't there to make the market do otherwise, nobody but an idiot would pay a price that didn't reflect the new market circumstances. Why pay more for an item now, incurring interest charges of 6% per annum, when you can buy the same item for 10% less in 18 months time?

Increased Market Liquidity Fuelling Inflation

Has anyone else worked out that the collective attempts to improve housing market liquidity are doing more harm than good? The Bank of England is pouring money into the house financing system but somehow mortgage rates and mortgage approvals are falling. Why is this happening? My suspicions are that the big players in the financial world have had their day with housing and are using the liquidity provided to invest in commodity speculation. This way banks make a fast buck on rising prices of oil, wheat, rice etc causing massive inflation, whilst the housing market remains stuck.

After sub-prime, we now have alt A and toxic debt. Meanwhile the money meant to alleviate these problems is fuelling oil at $120 per barrel and diverting food from our tables to huge warehouses. It wasn't so long ago that we had grain mountains and wine lakes. The current apparent food shortages are created by aggressive financial speculation rather than any real break down in the world's ability to grow and distribute food.

HBOS in Rights Cash Call for £4 Billion

The Halifax Bank of Scotland is going to investors for £4 billion in new money. The bank has announced a two for five issue of new shares at a 45% discount to yesterday's (28th April) closing price. HBOS, through its Halifax subsidiary, is Britain's biggest mortgage lender. The rights issue follows last week's £12 billion issue from Royal Bank of Scotland.

Despite increased market liquidity provided by the Bank of England and recent reductions in base rates, mortgage rates continue to rise.

The Euro Starts to Fall

According to The Daily Telegraph, the Euro has started to fall relative to other currencies. UK consumers will note with some alarm that in recent weeks the spot exchange rate has been in the area of 1.25 Euros per £. Well down on last summer, when rate was close to 1.50.

The consequences for the UK may mean higher import and holiday costs but in many respects this is good for the economy. The consequences within the Euro-Zone may well be catastrophic, particularly for weaker members that rely heavily on UK and perhaps US trade. The Telegraph highlights Spain, which enjoys a favourable balance of trade with the UK. As the Spanish are finding out, the Brits are no longer buying houses, least of all in the Costas. What scarce mortgage funds that are available will be diverted to UK house purchases. Along with Ireland, Spain has seen a huge boom in the property market. Nowhere else is the asymmetry within European economies going to be so severely tested.

The 10p Tax Problem

Did Gordon Brown blunder when he did away with the 10p bottom rate of income tax? Writing in the Financial Times, economist John Kay explains the maths behind the self-inflicted problem currently tearing apart the Labour party. Kay has worked out the income levels at which people lose and when they gain.

It seems to me, that the biggest mistake Brown made, was not to come clean on the fact that there would be a large number of losers. What seems ludicrous is that the losers are amongst UK society's poorest and most vulnerable people who appear to suffering a rate of inflation much higher than the population at large. Hubris.

Storm clouds gather for Tax of Mass Disaffection

How Gordon Brown must wish there was no such thing as televison. Yesterday's TV news shows ran footage from last year's budget when Brown was still Chancellor of the Exchequer. The clips show Brown commending the budget as a "Tax cutting" budget and making much of the cut in the basic rate of income tax from 22p to 20p in the pound. Interestingly, Brown failed to mention the total withdrawal of the lowest £1,500 band taxed at 10p in the pound. This was only mentioned in the small print of the budget document. The removal of this band has meant that up to 5.3 million people - all of them low paid - will now pay more tax than if the 10p band and the 22p basic rate had remained. This week, those low paid workers will see the full cost of this in their monthly pay packets.

Brown's dishonesty will cost him dear. The tax of mass disaffection is stirring up a rebellion amongst Labour MPs and Councillors. On 1st May, many of the country's voters go to the polls in local government elections. Don't expect the low paid to give Gordon Brown a vote of confidence.

RBS Rights Issue Tops £12 billion

According to the Financial Times, RBS' rights issue will top £12 billion, much bigger than the £5 billion reported last week. The announcement of the scale of the issue forced the FTSE to fall by 0.5% in today's early trading. This will be Europe's biggest ever rights issue!

RBS in £5 Billion Rights Issue

According to today's Daily Telegraph, The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is to go to the City and ask for £5 billion in new capital. RBS is the first major British bank to admit it needs large amounts of cash to shore up its finances.

RBS owns NatWest, one of the biggest names on UK high streets. The fact that RBS is in trouble begs an interesting question. Only last month there was a run on HBOS - Halifax Bank of Scotland - when rumours spread through the market that the bank was in trouble. Its easy to draw the conclusion that HBOS and RBS could have been mixed up.

Brown Meets Bankers in Crunch Mortgage Summit

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown meet the leaders of the UK banking industry in a Downing Street summit aimed at solving the crisis in Britain's mortgage market.

The banking industry is still reeling from the problems caused by the ongoing problems in the global money markets. Although the problems first emerged back in August 2007, a torrent of bad news runs the risk of causing a major collapse in the UK housing market. Recent data from leading mortgage bank Halifax indicated that prices had started to decline. In the US, prices have fallen 10% over the past year. A similar decline in the UK is seen as catastrophic given how much personal wealth is tied up in housing stock.

Only last week the Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter of a point, to 5%. The cut has not been passed on to borrowers.

As well as the mainstream lender much of the market relies on independent mortgage brokers. These act on behald of borrowers. But with the market in crisis it seems lenders have the upper hand.

Don't Register for VAT

I'm having a major problem with the VAT office. I've got to the point where I've appointed a "no win, no fee" agent to claim back the surcharges they keep making.

As a warning I would recommend all business people avoid registering for VAT. As nice and cosy as the smooth talker VAT trainers make it sound, Don't succumb.

My own experiences with the VAT office make a great advert for the black economy.

Market Jitters Cause Ratchet Impact

The financial markets appear to be operating a ratchet system regarding good news and bad news. If bad news is received it is immediately translated into lower prices. If good news is received it merely stabilises matters.

An example of good news is yesterday's story regarding December house price rises. The Halifax, Britain's largest mortgage lender issued a report that said prices had risen 1.3%. The market screened out the good news and carried on with the doom and gloom.

Examples of bad news include airline Easyjet and retailer Marks and Spencer. Both companies reported December like for like turnover figures approximately 2% down on 2006. The market responded by marking both shares down by around 15%. Now forgive me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the market already factored this level of doom and gloom? In addition within the bad news M&S reported online sales up 78%. This was largely brushed over.

If things carry on in this direction, then opportunities to acquire assets of all kinds will present themselves.